The best memorable learn comes from the worst mistake, if it leaves the scar,,,

On 11st Dec 2019 I posted a Long setup on GbpAud pair, disregarding some obvious bearish sign:

GbpAud forex pair, 15 Minutes chart. Courtesy
Courtesy of

What I see on 15M chart:
Price took out three lows then reverse up with long candle, then made a pullback/ABC correction as a long entry; I was thinking that this was a stop hunt/bear trap then reverse up.

Courtesy of

What I neglect:
1. The overall trend is bullish- bullish channel on daily, 4 hour and 1 hour chart – but the move on 15 minutes chart is bearish. The move up by that long green candle did not break any bearish structure to signify a reversal up;
2. The consecutive red candle that took out three lows; the price did not react/bounch up on that level, means the bulls did not trap to go long and put their stop under the three lows to be taken by stop hunt; therefore there was no stop-hunt run by the institutions around the setup; this is seen by lack of aggressive move up-down;
3. The setup did not occur around a key area; I normally take setups around the key area – Channel, Trendline, Support-Resistance; the 4 hour channel still far down;
4. The volume on 5 Minutes Chart (Volume Spread Analysis), I did see this; the big volume was on the bar at the end of the move up (stopping volume); my setup to constitute a valid reversal up require a consecutive big volume on bars at the end of moving down (stopping volume, absorb, accumulation), ended with a Volume climax at the last aggressive bar push down (some times at the same long bar during the stop hunt), then aggressively reverse up with long candle – mostly an engulfing candle with even larger volume (pushing volume)- that break bear structure (trend line/last high). During the pullback to retest the reversal candle, the volume normally lower; these were absent on that setup


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